ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs ED99999 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Short answer
Mostly yes. ED99999 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 122 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-10-10), adding up to $290K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$973K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$12K, last month +$54K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 89% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 89%Verified PnL#65 of 624
Beats 77%30-day PnL#135 of 594
Beats 63%Win rate#214 of 592
Beats 47%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#327 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board122
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-10-10
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$973K
Verified lifetime PnL
$113.66MVolume
71.2%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.83%PnL ÷ Volume
$12K7-day PnL
$54K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$973.3K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,594only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$6,851partial
Liquidity rewards$19.2K
0.86% ROI71.2% Win rate · n=399
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$725.8K · loses the most in Sports -$40.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$298.4KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$125.1KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Finance · Yes / No
- +$115.9KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- +$108.1KIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- +$76.9KWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$136.0KWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Sports · Yes
- -$45.4KUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Politics · No
- -$42.6KUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Politics · No
- -$39.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$32.7KIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$973KVerified lifetime PnL
$683KEarned off the board
122Days on board
$290KBoard-day sum
$12K7-day PnL
$54K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $18K |
| 2026-05 | 24 | $52K |
| 2026-06 | 28 | $78K |
| 2026-07 | 24 | $38K |
| 2026-08 | 18 | $18K |
| 2026-09 | 19 | $40K |
| 2026-10 | 3 | $45K |
Which boards
Politics 87Sports 36Culture 26Weather 15Finance 9Tech 8Crypto 5All markets 3Mentions 3
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
86% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $7K (90% maker / 10% taker); rebate covers 2% of recent trading losses
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio86%
Fills measured477
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scope1 days
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$7K
Maker rebate$6K
Taker rebate$713
Maker share90%
Taker share10%
Window2026-04-02 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Rebate covering trading losses
Trade cash-$62K
Rebate$969
Net total-$61K
Rebate covers loss2%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$290K
Verified lifetime PnL$973K
Verification gap$683K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)