ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs shovelingdigging really profitable on Polymarket?
0xe904443b4084bbda216e344353a44cd4324a2d9f
Short answer
Mostly yes. shovelingdigging made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 65 days (2026-03-24 to 2026-10-10), adding up to $21K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$54K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$9K, last month +$20K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Culture traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 51% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 51%Verified PnL#304 of 624
Beats 66%30-day PnL#202 of 594
Beats 64%Win rate#209 of 592
Beats 89%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#67 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board65
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-24
Last seen2026-10-10
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$54K
Verified lifetime PnL
$1.23MVolume
71.5%Win rate (sample) · n=396
3.75%PnL ÷ Volume
$9K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$53.9K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $4,214only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$500partial
Liquidity rewards$1,718
4.38% ROI71.1% Win rate · n=398
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$24.6K · loses the most in Sports -$1,689
Top 5 winning markets
- +$8,076Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Tech & science · Yes
- +$6,649Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?Culture · No
- +$4,957Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Tech & science · Yes
- +$4,674Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture · Yes
- +$3,668Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$5,419Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Culture · Yes
- -$2,570Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Culture · Yes
- -$2,027Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?Culture · Yes / No
- -$1,847Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Culture · Yes
- -$1,771Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Culture · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$54KVerified lifetime PnL
$33KEarned off the board
65Days on board
$21KBoard-day sum
$9K7-day PnL
$20K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 1 | $3K |
| 2026-04 | 1 | $177 |
| 2026-05 | 6 | $986 |
| 2026-06 | 12 | $4K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $4K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $2K |
Which boards
Culture 49Finance 16Sports 8Politics 2
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
58% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $500 (39% maker / 61% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio58%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Mixed rebate
Visible rebate total$500
Maker rebate$197
Taker rebate$303
Maker share39%
Taker share61%
Window2026-04-06 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$21K
Verified lifetime PnL$54K
Verification gap$33K
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)