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Is PhongLeXBT really profitable on Polymarket?

0xe94bf89e66b852d60866667bddf7bff9dad65abe

Short answer

No, not on a lifetime basis. PhongLeXBT made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 59 days (2026-03-22 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $60K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$40K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$16K, last month +$18K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Crypto traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 10% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 10%Verified PnL#560 of 624
Beats 64%30-day PnL#209 of 594
Beats 77%Win rate#134 of 592
Beats 11%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#546 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board59
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-22
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictNet negative

At a glance

-$40K

Verified lifetime PnL

$9.87MVolume
80.5%Win rate (sample) · n=399
-0.53%PnL ÷ Volume
$16K7-day PnL
$18K30-day PnL
2026-03 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$40.3K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $7,502only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$989partial
Liquidity rewards$56
-0.41% ROI35.8% Win rate · n=896

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleLongshot buyer59% of 321 buys at ≤ 10¢Mostly taker77% of 500 archived fills were taker fillsMainly crypto87% of last 500 fills (over 17.2 days) are crypto marketsAverages down60% of 65 multi-buy positions added 10%+ below the first priceRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Crypto +$98.9K

Crypto257 pos.+$98.9K
Finance82 pos.+$46.5K
Politics34 pos.+$17.5K
Sports22 pos.+$5,621
Culture2 pos.+$450
Weather1 pos.+$9.43
Other1 pos.+$0.5
Tech & science1 pos.$0

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$14.5KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics · No
  2. +$11.9KWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?Finance · No
  3. +$9,495Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Finance · No
  4. +$5,048Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Crypto · No
  5. +$4,664Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?Finance · No / Yes

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$1,549Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3?Crypto · Yes
  2. -$980Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 10?Crypto · Yes
  3. -$939MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?Finance · Yes
  4. -$884Bitcoin Up or Down on January 25?Crypto · Up
  5. -$829Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Politics · No

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

-$40KVerified lifetime PnL
$100KBelow board-day sum
59Days on board
$60KBoard-day sum
$16K7-day PnL
$18K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-03 1 $595
2026-04 2 $37K
2026-05 16 $12K
2026-06 9 $3K
2026-07 8 $3K
2026-08 12 $3K
2026-09 11 $1K

Which boards

Crypto 30Finance 18Sports 15Politics 3

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet

Measured layers

23% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $989 (27% maker / 73% taker)

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

mostly aggressive

Passive ratio23%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-30
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Taker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$989
Maker rebate$271
Taker rebate$718
Maker share27%
Taker share73%
Window2026-01-16 → 2026-10-30

Profit composition

No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.

Verification check

Net negative

Board-day sum$60K
Verified lifetime PnL-$40K
Verification gap-$100K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)