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Is BigRabbit really profitable on Polymarket?
0xeb22f4735df6bd5d14e1b5fd10faefa7757d808a
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. BigRabbit made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 87 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-29), adding up to $89K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$83K: a gap of $6K that can only come from losing days the board never shows.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 64% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 64%Verified PnL#406 of 1130
Beats 8%Win rate#851 of 928
Beats 37%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#601 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board87
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-29
VerdictOverstated
At a glance
$83K
Verified lifetime PnL
$29.31MVolume
39.9%Win rate (sample) · n=399
0.42%PnL ÷ Volume
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$83.1K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $755only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)—
Liquidity rewards$9,724partial
0.28% ROI38.7% Win rate · n=411
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$199.1K · loses the most in Finance -$14.8K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$56.5KWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Sports · Yes
- +$42.7KWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$42.3KWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
- +$42.2KWill the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$28.7KUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Politics · No
Top 5 losing markets
- -$33.1KUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics · Yes
- -$24.1KUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics · No / Yes
- -$23.4KWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics · Yes
- -$13.2KUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Politics · No
- -$11.9KStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 12 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$12.4K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$83KVerified lifetime PnL
$6KBelow board-day sum
87Days on board
$89KBoard-day sum
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $4K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $22K |
| 2026-06 | 16 | $24K |
| 2026-07 | 19 | $15K |
| 2026-08 | 15 | $4K |
| 2026-09 | 12 | $20K |
Which boards
Politics 45Sports 45Finance 9Crypto 5
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesnot measured yet
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-28
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Board-day sum$89K
Verified lifetime PnL$83K
Verification gap-$6K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)