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← All boardsIs Lukasburner really profitable on Polymarket?
0xeba4f0b5eea60bfe6df14e2297e58d8c152a69fb
Short answer
Mostly yes. Lukasburner made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 61 days (2026-04-14 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $14K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$17K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$2K, last month -$278.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 33% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 33%Verified PnL#414 of 624
Beats 25%30-day PnL#444 of 594
Beats 40%Win rate#351 of 592
Beats 84%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#98 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board61
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-14
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$17K
Verified lifetime PnL
$610KVolume
58.2%Win rate · n=383
2.85%PnL ÷ Volume
$2K7-day PnL
-$27830-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$17.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $707only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$342partial
Liquidity rewards$164
2.85% ROI58.2% Win rate · n=383
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$13.6K · loses the most in Other -$3.33
Top 5 winning markets
- +$10.0KFight to Go the Distance?Sports · Yes
- +$2,405Will GameStop acquire eBay?Finance · Yes
- +$2,398Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?Sports · No / Yes
- +$2,360Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Sports · Yes
- +$1,973Will "President" be said at the Super Bowl?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$3,374Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome?Sports · No
- -$3,287Will Montreal Canadiens advance to Round 2 of the 2026 NHL Playoffs?Sports · No
- -$2,760Fight to Go the Distance?Sports · Yes
- -$1,997UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)Sports · Joaquin Buckley
- -$1,842Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Sports · No
Covers the 387 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$17KVerified lifetime PnL
$4KEarned off the board
61Days on board
$14KBoard-day sum
$2K7-day PnL
-$27830-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $2K |
| 2026-05 | 6 | $1K |
| 2026-06 | 7 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $4K |
| 2026-08 | 20 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $719 |
Which boards
Sports 43Culture 19Mentions 1Finance 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
82% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $342 (98% maker / 2% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mostly passive
Passive ratio82%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-31
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$342
Maker rebate$335
Taker rebate$6
Maker share98%
Taker share2%
Window2026-04-02 → 2026-11-01
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$14K
Verified lifetime PnL$17K
Verification gap$4K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)