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Is StarMaster really profitable on Polymarket?
0xeca0c0888e34df59589c67fbe53dc7f298b5e8f8
Short answer
Mostly yes. StarMaster made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 77 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-21), adding up to $14K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$109K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$71K, last month +$76K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 68% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 68%Verified PnL#351 of 1130
Beats 80%30-day PnL#160 of 810
Beats 30%Win rate#644 of 928
Beats 47%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#497 of 954
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board77
Archive span206 days
First seen2026-04-25
Last seen2026-09-21
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$109K
Verified lifetime PnL
$13.87MVolume
54.9%Win rate (sample) · n=390
0.78%PnL ÷ Volume
$71K7-day PnL
$76K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$109.4K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $592only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$2,236partial
Liquidity rewards$12.4Kpartial
0.79% ROI56.3% Win rate · n=405
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$43.0K · loses the most in Sports -$6,521
Top 5 winning markets
- +$6,224Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics · Yes
- +$3,681US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$3,666US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Politics · Yes / No
- +$3,333Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes / No
- +$3,331Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$5,478US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · Yes / No
- -$3,520US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics · Yes
- -$3,382US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Politics · Yes / No
- -$2,356Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Politics · No
- -$2,164Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics · Yes / No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 1 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$118). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
$109KVerified lifetime PnL
$96KEarned off the board
77Days on board
$14KBoard-day sum
$71K7-day PnL
$76K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 3 | $640 |
| 2026-05 | 18 | $4K |
| 2026-06 | 11 | $3K |
| 2026-07 | 15 | $2K |
| 2026-08 | 17 | $3K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $899 |
Which boards
Politics 45Sports 28Tech 14Finance 5Culture 5Mentions 2Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionnot measured yet
Measured layers
56% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $2K (75% maker / 25% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
mixed
Passive ratio56%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-10-10
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$2K
Maker rebate$2K
Taker rebate$556
Maker share75%
Taker share25%
Window2026-02-07 → 2026-11-04
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$14K
Verified lifetime PnL$109K
Verification gap$96K
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)