ProbPocket Prediction markets, in your pocket.
← All boardsIs Melody626 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. Melody626 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 96 days (2026-03-23 to 2026-08-31), adding up to $429K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$90K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week -$60K, last month +$34K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 8% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 8%Verified PnL#572 of 624
Beats 72%30-day PnL#167 of 594
Beats 72%Win rate#161 of 592
Beats 18%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#504 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board96
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-03-23
Last seen2026-08-31
VerdictNet negative
At a glance
-$90K
Verified lifetime PnL
$35.41MVolume
77.2%Win rate (sample) · n=394
-0.02%PnL ÷ Volume
-$60K7-day PnL
$34K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
Loading how it makes money…
Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)−$89.6K
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $3,028only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$13.2Kpartial
Liquidity rewards$15.3Kpartial
-0.25% ROI45.1% Win rate · n=738
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Politics +$645.0K · loses the most in Culture -$26.4K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$139.6KGOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?Politics · Yes
- +$121.2KWill the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Culture · Yes / No
- +$95.1KTikTok banned in the US before May 2025?Culture · Yes
- +$60.3KWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- +$45.7KWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Culture · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$92.7KWill Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Culture · Yes
- -$66.2KWill George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$59.6KWill there be a US Government shutdown? Politics · No
- -$53.8KUS military action against Iran before July?Politics · No
- -$52.0KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
-$90KVerified lifetime PnL
$519KBelow board-day sum
96Days on board
$429KBoard-day sum
-$60K7-day PnL
$34K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | 3 | $6K |
| 2026-04 | 7 | $54K |
| 2026-05 | 25 | $102K |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $131K |
| 2026-07 | 20 | $55K |
| 2026-08 | 24 | $82K |
Which boards
Politics 67Culture 44Sports 12All markets 6Finance 5Mentions 2Weather 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
94% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $13K (75% maker / 25% taker); recent window rebate share 2%
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio94%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-16
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$13K
Maker rebate$10K
Taker rebate$3K
Maker share75%
Taker share25%
Window2026-04-05 → 2026-10-05
Profit composition
Trade-dominated
Trade cash$33K
Rebate$582
Net total$34K
Rebate share2%
Window2026-09-12 → 2026-10-12
Verification check
Net negative
Board-day sum$429K
Verified lifetime PnL-$90K
Verification gap-$519K
Trade on Polymarket
If you are setting up an account, this is my referral link.
Open Polymarket View this trader on PolymarketAffiliate disclosure: every link to Polymarket on this page is an affiliate (referral) link, and I may earn a commission if you sign up through one. It changes nothing about the data here, which is generated from public APIs. Nothing on this page is financial advice, a signal service, or a promise of returns.
Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)