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Is SaylorMoon really profitable on Polymarket?

0xecb14ac6e9ca447ce2f2912e6217b43d7b655da3

Short answer

Mostly yes. SaylorMoon made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 79 days (2026-04-21 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $170K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$570K, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$702, last month +$97K.

All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets

Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology

Site-wide rank

Verified PnL beats 83% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.

Beats 83%Verified PnL#105 of 624
Beats 83%30-day PnL#97 of 594
Beats 23%Win rate#454 of 592
Beats 38%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#379 of 620

Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.

Days on board79
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-21
Last seen2026-09-22
VerdictHolds up

At a glance

$570K

Verified lifetime PnL

$78.56MVolume
49.5%Win rate (sample) · n=396
0.58%PnL ÷ Volume
$7027-day PnL
$97K30-day PnL
2026-04 2026-09

Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.

Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.

Loading official book…

Loading how it makes money…

Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01

Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$570.3K

For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again

Trading fees paid≥ $7,925only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$4,811partial
Liquidity rewards$21.7K
0.73% ROI44.6% Win rate · n=439

Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.

Trading styleMostly maker93% of 500 archived fills were maker (resting order) fillsMainly politics74% of last 500 fills (over 10.5 days) are politics marketsRead from recent fills; hover a tag for the numbers. A profile, not a signal to copy.

What it trades and where the money comes from

Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.

Makes the most in Culture +$244.5K · loses the most in Politics -$18.3K

Culture18 pos.+$244.5K
Finance31 pos.+$74.9K
Sports245 pos.+$64.2K
Tech & science2 pos.+$24.7K
Crypto9 pos.+$4,493
Politics95 pos.-$18.3K

Top 5 winning markets

  1. +$164.7KNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
  2. +$138.7KWill Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Politics · Yes / No
  3. +$117.9KWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?Sports · Yes
  4. +$88.5KWill South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?Politics · No
  5. +$87.6KNo change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes

Top 5 losing markets

  1. -$133.4KWill Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?Politics · No
  2. -$113.2KWill the government shutdown end November 12?Politics · Yes
  3. -$85.1KWill Kanye launch a coin in February?Crypto · No / Yes
  4. -$73.6KWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics · Yes
  5. -$69.5KWill Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Politics · Yes

Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01

$570KVerified lifetime PnL
$400KEarned off the board
79Days on board
$170KBoard-day sum
$7027-day PnL
$97K30-day PnL

Month by month

MonthDays on a boardSummed PnL
2026-04 7 $75K
2026-05 22 $51K
2026-06 17 $17K
2026-07 17 $15K
2026-08 7 $11K
2026-09 9 $2K

Which boards

Sports 38Politics 37Culture 6Finance 5Mentions 4Crypto 3All markets 3

Method breakdown

Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen

Measured layers

93% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $5K (89% maker / 11% taker); recent window rebate share 0%

Compare with another wallet

Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.

Execution style

passive (market maker)

Passive ratio93%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent

Visible rebates

Maker-rebate heavy

Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$4K
Taker rebate$511
Maker share89%
Taker share11%
Window2026-01-09 → 2026-10-12

Profit composition

Trade-dominated

Trade cash$170K
Rebate$735
Net total$170K
Rebate share0%
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30

Verification check

Holds up

Board-day sum$170K
Verified lifetime PnL$570K
Verification gap$400K

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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)