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← All boardsIs elmcap2 really profitable on Polymarket?
0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
Short answer
Mostly yes. elmcap2 made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 119 days (2026-04-02 to 2026-10-30), adding up to $108K on those days. Their verified lifetime PnL is +$2.33M, at least as much as the board days imply, so the leaderboard is not hiding a pile of losing days. Recent windows from Polymarket: last week +$237K, last month +$238K.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Politics traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 95% of the 624 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Beats 95%Verified PnL#29 of 624
Beats 90%30-day PnL#58 of 594
Beats 88%Win rate#67 of 592
Beats 43%Return (PnL ÷ volume)#348 of 620
Compared with the 624 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
Days on board119
Archive span203 days
First seen2026-04-02
Last seen2026-10-30
VerdictHolds up
At a glance
$2.33M
Verified lifetime PnL
$297.28MVolume
88.6%Win rate (sample) · n=396
0.71%PnL ÷ Volume
$237K7-day PnL
$238K30-day PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
Win rate from the most recent closed-positions sample the API returned; large books may be incomplete.
Loading official book…
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-01
Net PnL (official, fees already deducted)+$2.33M
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Trading fees paid≥ $1,460only the fills we could read — a floor
Rebates (maker + taker)$5,139partial
Liquidity rewards$8,301partial
0.78% ROI88% Win rate · n=399
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Finance +$1.13M · loses the most in Sports -$196.2K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$201.6KWill Biden finish his term?Politics · Yes
- +$176.5KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$143.2KWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · Yes
- +$113.6KWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Finance · No
- +$99.7KFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Finance · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$47.5KWill Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?Sports · Yes
- -$31.9KChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?Politics · No
- -$30.0KWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics · Yes
- -$28.0KWill Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Crypto · Yes
- -$20.7KWill Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Politics · Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-01
$2.33MVerified lifetime PnL
$2.22MEarned off the board
119Days on board
$108KBoard-day sum
$237K7-day PnL
$238K30-day PnL
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 6 | $9K |
| 2026-05 | 28 | $33K |
| 2026-06 | 25 | $41K |
| 2026-07 | 26 | $14K |
| 2026-08 | 20 | $8K |
| 2026-09 | 13 | $2K |
| 2026-10 | 1 | $391 |
Which boards
Politics 70Crypto 37Culture 34Sports 28Finance 25Mentions 8Weather 2Tech 2All markets 1
Method breakdown
Execution styleopen
Visible rebatesopen
Profit compositionopen
Measured layers
92% passive fills in the recent window; visible rebate $5K (92% maker / 8% taker)
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Passive ratio92%
Fills measured500
Window ends2026-09-25
Window scopeMost recent
Visible rebates
Maker-rebate heavy
Visible rebate total$5K
Maker rebate$5K
Taker rebate$410
Maker share92%
Taker share8%
Window2026-03-25 → 2026-10-12
Profit composition
Insufficient data
Trade cash$1.07M
Rebate$561
Net total$1.07M
Window2026-09-30 → 2026-10-30
Verification check
Holds up
Board-day sum$108K
Verified lifetime PnL$2.33M
Verification gap$2.22M
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Generated 2026-11-01 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-01 (203 snapshots)