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Is Outsid3rTrading really profitable on Polymarket?
0xf1ef8705e9f63c790c6fffd6329aea7011718cd6
Short answer
Less than the leaderboard suggests. Outsid3rTrading made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 102 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $158K on those days. Verified lifetime PnL is only +$60K: a gap of $97K that can only come from losing days the board never shows.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 58% of the 1130 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Compared with the 1130 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
At a glance
$60K
Verified lifetime PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-11-04
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Sports +$168.9K · loses the most in Politics -$61.5K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$71.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics · Yes
- +$67.2KWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
- +$24.1KNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons Sports · Cavs
- +$21.6KCounter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto PlayoffsSports · Spirit
- +$17.7K76ers vs. CelticsSports · 76ers
Top 5 losing markets
- -$37.6KDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsSports · TEAM VISION
- -$21.6KWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
- -$20.8KWill MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?Sports · Yes
- -$18.5KKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Politics · No
- -$15.3KUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics · No
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Not in the bars: 254 losing positions that expired worthless and were never redeemed (-$788.7K). This wallet has too many positions to read in full, so they cannot be matched fairly; its real result is lower than the bars. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-11-04
Full account check-up: real PnL by market type, last 30/90 days, unredeemed losses included →
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $5K |
| 2026-05 | 21 | $47K |
| 2026-06 | 17 | $36K |
| 2026-07 | 22 | $24K |
| 2026-08 | 23 | $35K |
| 2026-09 | 15 | $10K |
Which boards
Method breakdown
Measured layers
95% passive fills in the recent window
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
passive (market maker)
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Overstated
Trade on Polymarket
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Generated 2026-11-04 · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-11-04 (206 snapshots)