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← All boardsIs TradingWave really profitable on Polymarket?
0xf49ce459b52f60b70ce0fe9aa6203e6bf90f9786
Short answer
No, not on a lifetime basis. TradingWave made Polymarket's daily leaderboard on 61 days (2026-04-25 to 2026-09-22), adding up to $127K on those days, yet verified lifetime PnL is -$211K. The winning days are real; the losing days are simply never on the board.
All figures are Polymarket's own numbers (after trading fees), read from public APIs. How the verification works · All verified wallets
Read more: Is the Polymarket leaderboard accurate? · How to check a wallet's real PnL · Top Sports traders by verified PnL · Weekly reports · Methodology
Site-wide rank
Verified PnL beats 5% of the 625 wallets ProbPocket tracks.
Compared with the 625 wallets that appeared on the daily Polymarket boards ProbPocket archives. Win rate needs ≥20 settled positions; return needs ≥$10,000 volume.
At a glance
-$211K
Verified lifetime PnL
Curve: summed PnL on archived board days.
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Real PnL, line by line Stored copy · data as of 2026-10-30
For reference — already inside the official figure (fees deducted, rebates and rewards included), so not added or subtracted again
Polymarket’s figure already has fees taken out; the lines below show where the money went. Not advice.
What it trades and where the money comes from
Realized PnL by market category, plus the five markets this wallet made and lost the most on.
Makes the most in Culture +$3,466 · loses the most in Sports -$201.0K
Top 5 winning markets
- +$117.5KWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports · Yes
- +$95.5KWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- +$75.4KWill Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Sports · Yes
- +$50.0K76ers vs. CelticsSports · 76ers
- +$30.7KWill Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Sports · Yes
Top 5 losing markets
- -$47.6KFrance vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceSports · France
- -$23.1KWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · Yes
- -$22.6KWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · No / Yes
- -$21.1KWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports · Yes / No
- -$19.7KWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports · No / Yes
Covers the 400 closed positions with the largest gains and losses (the API pages by size); smaller positions are left out. Realized PnL of settled positions only; open positions are not counted. Data as of 2026-10-30
Month by month
| Month | Days on a board | Summed PnL |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | $6K |
| 2026-05 | 9 | $16K |
| 2026-06 | 14 | $88K |
| 2026-07 | 11 | $10K |
| 2026-08 | 13 | $6K |
| 2026-09 | 10 | $392 |
Which boards
Method breakdown
No method layer measured yet for this address.
Compare with another wallet
Curves, categories and core numbers side by side.
Execution style
Not measured for this address — either no recent fills, or the two passes over the same span disagreed. Left blank rather than shown as zero, which would read as fully aggressive.
Visible rebates
Visible-rebate layer not fetched for this address yet. It comes from the official activity API (MAKER_REBATE / TAKER_REBATE) — not invented from PnL.
Profit composition
No same-window profit composition for this address yet. When measured, this layer uses the official activity feed (trade cash vs rebate) — not a guess from lifetime PnL.
Verification check
Net negative
Trade on Polymarket
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Archived 2026-10-30 · not refreshed since then · archive 2026-03-19 → 2026-10-30 (201 snapshots)